The Denver Nuggets, crowned the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. With the game tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET, the Nuggets enter as favorites with a 5-point advantage.
Season Standings
The Nuggets boast an impressive 30-14 record, positioning them third in the Western Conference, while the Pacers hold a 24-19 record, placing them seventh in the Eastern Conference. The total for the upcoming game is set at O/U 239 points, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair.
Recent Performances
Both teams have had varying success in their recent matchups. The Pacers have stumbled, losing four of their last five games. However, they've shown resilience at home, winning five out of their last six at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. On the other hand, the Nuggets have been on an upward trajectory, securing victories in four of their last five outings and eyeing their third consecutive road win.
In their most recent encounter, the Pacers fell short against the Phoenix Suns with a score of 117-110. Despite this setback, Indiana has demonstrated strong performances on their home court, a trend they hope to continue against the visiting Nuggets. Conversely, Denver has maintained a solid track record, winning seven of their last ten games, showcasing their championship pedigree.
Player Spotlights and Team Dynamics
Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets' star center, continues to dominate the league, having racked up an impressive 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists in his last game against the Washington Wizards. His performance places him 13th in points per game (26.1) and fourth in both rebounds and assists across the league. Jamal Murray complements Jokic's prowess, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists.
For the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton's status remains uncertain due to a hamstring issue, which could significantly impact the team's dynamics. Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard are also doubtful, potentially leaving gaps in Indiana's lineup. The Nuggets will be without Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie, Braxton Key, and Julian Strawther due to injuries, but Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are probable, likely providing additional firepower for Denver.
The previous encounter between these two teams earlier this month saw the Nuggets emerge victorious with a 117-109 win. In that game, Jokic, Murray, and Porter each contributed 25 points, while Aaron Gordon added 20 points. Haliburton did not play in that matchup, and his absence was certainly felt by the Pacers. Historically, Denver has dominated recent meetings, defeating Indiana in their last seven encounters, a streak the Pacers aim to break, especially considering they haven't secured a win against the Nuggets since 2020.
Betting Odds and Trends
Bet Rivers lists the Nuggets at -175 on the moneyline, reflecting their status as favorites. Despite this, Denver's Against The Spread (ATS) record this season stands at 19-24-1, covering only 44.2% of their games. Their ATS percentage dips to 35.7% following a win, and their road ATS record is 8-15-0. However, with an average margin of victory sitting at five points and being away favorites, they cover one-third of the time.
On the flip side, the Pacers have a more favorable ATS record for the 2023/24 season at 24-18-2. They cover 60% of their home games and have a promising 5-2 record as home underdogs. These statistics suggest that Indiana may defy the odds and cover the spread in the upcoming matchup.
Pascal Siakam, who joined the Pacers from the Toronto Raptors, has already made his presence felt, scoring 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers. His addition could prove crucial in bolstering Indiana's offense, especially if Haliburton is sidelined.
Final Thoughts
While the Nuggets have struggled ATS this season, their consistent 5-point margin of victory could see them cover the spread against the Pacers. Jokic remains a formidable force, and with Murray also demanding attention, Denver's multi-faceted scoring ability, evidenced by Porter and Gordon's contributions, could prove too much for Indiana. Nonetheless, the Pacers have shown grit at home, and with a strong ATS record as underdogs on their turf, they might just have the resolve to challenge the reigning champions.