In a stunning turn of events, the Major League Baseball landscape has been shaken by the news that All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes is once again on the move. The Chicago Cubs and the Tampa Bay Rays have agreed on a significant trade, finalizing the deal just ahead of the looming July 30 trade deadline.
A Return to the Cubs
Paredes' journey through the MLB has been anything but linear. Initially signed by the Chicago Cubs as an amateur, Paredes was traded to the Detroit Tigers before eventually finding his way to the Tampa Bay Rays. Now, in a full-circle moment, Paredes is returning to where it all began—Wrigley Field.
At 25 years old, Paredes has accumulated an impressive slash line of .237/.340/.458 (126 OPS+) along with 67 home runs over the course of 354 games. His performance solidly places him just behind elite third basemen Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, Austin Riley, and Manny Machado in OPS+ during this span, a testament to his consistent contributions on the field.
Analyzing His Potential
Despite these impressive stats, some underlying metrics show room for improvement. According to Statcast's metrics, Paredes' average exit velocity ranks in the 4th percentile, suggesting there are aspects of his game that could be refined. Yet, his tendency to pull a greater share of fly balls than any other player in the majors, as noted by Robert Orr's database, showcases his unique hitting style.
Interestingly, Statcast also estimates that had Paredes spent more time playing at Wrigley Field, he would have five fewer home runs this season and 12 fewer for his career. Despite this, the Cubs see significant potential in him. Securing his services through the 2027 season, the Cubs are looking to bolster their batting capacity and overall team dynamics with Paredes on board.
The Rays' Strategy
The trade of Paredes is part of a broader trend for the Rays, who have been making significant roster changes since the start of July. They have traded players including Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Phil Maton, Jason Adam, and now Paredes. It’s a move reminiscent of the "White Flag Trade" by the 1997 Chicago White Sox, although the Rays are only half a game worse in playoff positioning compared to that historic trade.
Notably, analysts have observed that "Clearly the Powers That Be in St. Petersburg view Ron Schueler as a fearless trailblazer that never got his due." This reflects the Rays' management style as they continue to make bold moves that could reshape their team's future.
Christopher Morel: A Promising Addition
In exchange for Paredes, the Rays have acquired 25-year-old Christopher Morel, a promising batter with the potential to make an impact. Morel’s 90th percentile exit velocity places him in the company of hitters like Teoscar Hernández and Joc Pederson. Analysts remark, "Morel strikes us as someone who is a decent bet to be an above-average hitter for at least the next few years."
The Rays might utilize Morel at second base, left field, or as a designated hitter, depending on their evolving team needs. As one expert commented, "The Rays may want to plop him down at second base (or left field, or DH) and say, 'that's that, go hit and we won't mind the defensive damage.'"
Additional Trade Components
Alongside Morel, the deal includes two other players: the 26-year-old Bigge, who has made four big-league appearances this season with the Cubs, and 22-year-old Johnson, a recent pick from Ball State in last summer’s 15th round. While their roles may initially seem supplementary, both players bring unique attributes that could play pivotal roles for the Rays in the future.
As the trade dust settles and the season progresses, the impact of these moves will become clearer. For now, the MLB community watches closely as Isaac Paredes prepares to don the Cubs uniform once again and the Rays continue to sculpt their roster with a clear vision for success.